FORECASTING SCENARIO OF THE INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE HOTEL BUSINESS IN RURAL AREAS: CASES FOR UKRAINE

Abstract

The focus of the paper is to identify the short-term impact of the war economy on the hotel business, the decline in foreign direct investment trends, and to develop a simulation model for forecasting the investment attractiveness of the green hotel business.

The methods and approaches of the system approach were used to formulate the general theoretical provisions.  To assess the status and forecast future directions of activating the investment attractiveness of green hotels, the scenario method, the Delphi method, Swot analysis, the “branch” and “cone of probability’ methods were used to identify the main trends and possible scenarios for the investment development of the green hotels during post-war recovery. The method of expert assessments and the Likert scale were used to identify current trends in foreign direct investment. The research is aimed at assessing the investment development of the hotel sector, analysing the volume of capital investments in the activities of hotels, studying the dynamics of the investment attractiveness index, which allows to predict the investment attractiveness of green hotels in the long term.

The research's value lies in assessing the investment attractiveness of hotels in rural areas as a promising area for ensuring the viability of the agrarian sector and the green hotels.