FORECASTING PARAMETERS OF FARM DEVELOPMENT AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL USING THE STELLA PROGRAM

Abstract

Given the importance of forecasting the production of agricultural products by farms, the study created an original model in the STELLA program, which identified the impact on the number of agricultural enterprises, land area and fertilizers. The created model showed that in Ivano-Frankivsk region by 2030 with the stabilization of the number of agricultural enterprises, land area and the increase in mineral fertilizers per hectare of sown area may increase agricultural production by farms. This will help solve important issues for the region and the state in general, related to strengthening food security, ensuring the social development of rural areas. The prognostic changes in the volume of agricultural production determined by the STELLA program by farms of the region until 2030 can be the basis for the development of a promising model of the agricultural production system at the regional level.