THE RURAL SECTOR SENSITIVITY ON CYCLICAL FLUCTUATION: EVIDENCE FROM OECD MEMBERS AND POST-SOCIALIST COUNTRIESTHE RURAL SECTOR SENSITIVITY ON CYCLICAL FLUCTUATION: EVIDENCE FROM OECD MEMBERS AND POST-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES

Abstract

The stabilization policy of the state should consider the sensitivity of various sectors of the economy to cyclical fluctuations. This actualizes the problem of assessing the sensitivity of the agricultural sector of post-socialist countries to cyclical fluctuations of the economy. The purpose of the article is to provide a comparative assessment of the sensitivity of share agricultural sector to cyclical fluctuations in developed (post-industrial) and post-socialist countries. The generalizing intensity index of cyclic fluctuations was used as an explanatory variable, and the characteristics of the variability of the agricultural sector share in GDP (based on a modified mean square deviation) was used as a dependent variable. The obtained estimates of the model parameters shows that the long-term trend of reducing the share of the agrarian sector is decaying. However, with the attenuation of the trend component of the series, the cyclic component remains very noticeable and the relative fluctuations of the share of the agricultural sector (around a very small absolute value) remain significant.