CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND THE EU USING THE GRAVITY MODEL

Abstract

The analysis of geographical structure of export and import of goods between Ukraine and EU countries is carried out. The share of agricultural products in the commodity structure of export-import of goods is investigated. The methodological approach to the cluster analysis of trading partners with agricultural products is substantiated. Using the k-means method and the Ward-method, clustering of trading partners of the EU member states and Ukraine regarding the export and import of agricultural products was carried out. Three cluster groups (“export-oriented”, “import-oriented” and “potential partners”) are distinguished; their main peculiarities are described. In order to determine the specifics of trade relations with the partners of each cluster, a gravity model was used; this model demonstrated the main factors affecting foreign agricultural trade. When applying the gravity model for each cluster, the main stimulating and discouraging factors, which affect foreign agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU, were identified.