RECONCILING ECOLOGY, LAW AND GOVERNANCE: SCENARIOS FOR BIOREGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The legal regulation of bioregions is gaining growing relevance within the contemporary discourse on environmental, economic, and regional policy. In the face of climate change, resource scarcity, and increasing public environmental awareness, the question of how to ensure effective and adaptive territorial governance—capable of promoting both sustainability and regional development—has become particularly salient. This article offers a theoretically and conceptually grounded analysis of the principal dilemmas shaping the legal regulation of bioregions in Latvia and outlines potential future development trajectories. The study adopts two complementary methodological approaches: dilemma analysis and scenario modelling. First, it identifies and examines three structural dilemmas: (1) the trade-off between ecological protection and economic development, (2) the tension between centralized governance and local community autonomy, and (3) the challenge of reconciling legal rigidity with the need for flexibility in response to evolving ecological dynamics. These dilemmas are analysed within the context of Latvian and European Union legal frameworks, policy instruments, and governance practices, highlighting both theoretical contradictions and practical implementation challenges. Building upon these analytical axes, the second part of the article develops three future scenarios: a pessimistic scenario ("Stagnation and Conflicts"), a realistic scenario ("Cautious Progress"), and an optimistic scenario ("Sustainable Transformation"). Each scenario projects potential developments in the legal and institutional landscape through 2030, incorporating dimensions such as public participation, governance effectiveness, and environmental protection. The comparative assessment of the scenarios elucidates divergent pathways and identifies critical tipping points that may either facilitate or hinder the transition toward a more resilient and sustainable model of governance. The article concludes that the effectiveness of legal systems in bioregional governance is contingent upon their ability to address complex dilemmas in a dynamic, context-sensitive manner. Scenario analysis emerges as a valuable tool not only for diagnosing the current state but also for articulating and exploring alternative futures. The article provides governance implications, emphasizing the need to empower local initiatives, enhance legal adaptability, and embed principles of sustainable governance in order to establish a robust and resilient bioregional management system in Latvia.