FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EXPORT OF RAW MILK: THE CASE OF LITHUANIA

Abstract

Dairy products, including raw milk, play an important role in Lithuania's total gross agricultural output. The statistical data showed that the export flows of raw milk (excluding milk powder) are not stable over the years. Different results were found for exports of milk powder, where export flows do not fluctuate, and the chosen trading partner ensures export stability. In contrast, exports of raw milk (excluding milk powder), where the trading partner changes annually, have to be analysed. Therefore, the present research aims to provide insight into the main factors influencing the flow of exported raw milk (excluding milk powder) in order to ensure more stable export flows in Lithuania. To achieve the aim and objectives, the analysis, systematisation and comparison of previous empirical research were made; the present empirical research was conducted using the gravity model and collected Lithuanian raw milk (HS0401) export data for 2014-2023 using Gretl software. The present empirical research results showed that the number of milk animals has a statistically significant and higher positive impact on the export flow of raw milk. This result differs from previous empirical research and gives insight that in order to ensure raw milk export, more attention must be paid to the number of milk animals in Lithuania. The highest and statistically significant negative impact was corruption, this gives insights that agricultural organisations need to analyse corruption factors when choosing trading partners, as this leads to a decrease in raw milk export.