FORECASTING THE POPULATION OF RETIREMENT AGE IN RURAL RUSSIA

Abstract

Population aging and an increase in the number of older age cohorts are demographic constraints and barriers to sustainable rural development. Rural areas of Russia have been affected by demographic aging to a greater extent than urban areas; the proportion of the population of retirement age in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. The purpose of the study is a forecasting the rural population of retirement age and changes in the demographic load in Russia. To construct a demographic forecast, the component method was used. The results show that the number of rural population of retirement age in 2020-2029 will decrease by 4.2-7.3% with zero migration and 5.8-8.9% taking into account the scale of rural-urban migration. From 2034, an increase in the number of persons of retirement age is projected. In 2020-2049 the number of rural pensioners will grow in the medium and high scenarios of demographic development by 4.4-5.5%, excluding migration. The article calculates coefficient of demographic load. The analysis shows that the rural population 0-15 years old is steadily declining. At the same time the number of persons of retirement age in Russia is steadily increasing, both in rural and urban areas.  The decline in the birth rate has led to a decrease the demographic load coefficient by children and an increase of the old-age dependency ratio. Upcoming demographic changes must be taken into account in the strategic planning and development of regional programs.