THE EFFECT OF FOREST LAND EXPANSION ON GREENHOUSE GAS UPTAKE AND EMISSIONS

Abstract

This article examines the impact of afforestation on the carbon sequestration potential in the Jonavos district using two scenarios. The first scenario involves the immediate afforestation of all suitable areas, while the second entails a gradual afforestation, beginning with zones of highest suitability. The analysis is based on a greenhouse gas (GHG) calculator developed in accordance with IPCC guidelines and using data from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory. Based on the results obtained, it was determined that faster afforestation leads to a significantly greater accumulation of carbon in biomass – the difference amounts to 854.3 t C in 2024 and 1854.2 t C in 2033, corresponding to a 38.2% improvement compared to the gradual afforestation scenario. Moreover, the rapid afforestation scenario was found to increase carbon accumulation by an additional 648 kg C per hectare by the end of the modeled period. The study results underscore the importance of forest restoration as a climate change mitigation measure and reveal the potential of optimized afforestation strategies in enhancing carbon sequestration. The data suggest that the integrated use of land-use data with dynamic modeling methods can substantially refine carbon budget estimates and support science-based decision-making in climate policy..