CARBON CREDIT GENERATION POTENTIAL OF AFFORESTATION ON AGRICULTURAL LAND IN LITHUANIA

Santrauka

Afforestation and forest restoration have become central components of climate and biodiversity policy with voluntary carbon trading emerging as a potential tool. The aim of this study is to assess the carbon credit generation potential of afforestation on agricultural land in Lithuania. Eleven agricultural land plots located in the Utena, Vilnius, and Siauliai regions were analysed using data from the Arbonics assessment platform. Of these, eight plots were found suitable for afforestation, with a total eligible area of approximately 72 ha (59.6% of the total area). Plots were classified by forest site type: Ld (temporarily waterlogged fertile sites – birch), Nc (normal moisture fertile sites – Norway spruce), and Sd (wet fertile sites – birch). Over a 50-year period, the eight plots are projected to generate approximately 11,633 carbon credits with a total economic value of EUR 814,310 (at EUR 70 per credit). Birch (Ld) and Norway spruce (Nc) scenarios showed similar revenue efficiency (~EUR 11,250/ha), while wet fertile (Sd) habitat plots demonstrated the highest potential at EUR 19,122/ha. Revenue begins to accumulate significantly from years 6–9 and increases throughout the project period. This study thus shows that afforestation of agricultural land for carbon credits has the potential to be a valid business model. However, this is dependent on the economic markets of carbon trading.