FEATURES OF CHANGES IN BUILT-UP AREAS IN KĖDAINIAI, JONAVA AND UKMERGĖ DISTRICTS MUNICIPALITIES IN THE PERIOD OF 2016–2025

Abstract

Urbanization and population change are among the most important factors determining the development of territories and changes in land use. Observing the trends of recent years, urbanization processes in Lithuania are manifested unevenly in different districts, and systematic comparisons are lacking. Therefore, the selected study of Kėdainiai, Jonava and Ukmergė district municipalities is relevant - it allows us to assess the peculiarities of the development of built-up areas and plan sustainable use of territories. This work analyzes the development of built-up areas in Kėdainiai, Jonava and Ukmergė district municipalities in the period 2016–2025, in order to comprehensively assess the impact of changes in the number of inhabitants and other land use areas on the development of territories and to forecast possible trends in the change of built-up areas in 2026–2035. The study used an analysis of literature sources and quantitative analysis of statistical data based on information from official registers. The results showed that the population in all three municipalities was decreasing, most notably in Kėdainiai district, but the areas of built-up areas did not decrease in principle, and in some cases even increased. The number of registered legal and private land plots for other purposes increased consistently, although the intensity of growth was different in different municipalities. Forecasts for 2026–2035 show uneven development of built-up areas in municipalities: in Kėdainiai district, a decrease in these areas is predicted, in Jonava district - a slight increase, and in Ukmergė district - a stable and moderate continuation of development.